Tunisia is experiencing a gradual yet significant demographic shift that threatens its long-term sustainability. A closer look at the most recent census data reveals alarming trends that could lead to a population crisis in the coming decades. From declining birth rates to the aging population, Tunisia’s demographic structure is evolving in ways that could have serious social and economic consequences.
Declining Marriages and Birth Rates
According to the latest census report by Tunisia’s National Institute of Statistics, there has been a marked decrease in both the marriage rate and fertility rate over recent years. While Tunisia’s youth still make up the majority of the population, the demographic indicators clearly show a rapid move towards an aging population. In particular, the fertility rate in Tunisia has seen a noticeable decline, with fewer children being born each year. This trend has been particularly alarming, as it directly influences the country’s population renewal capacity.
The country’s fertility rate has fallen significantly from previous decades, with current statistics showing that Tunisia is no longer able to replace its population through natural births alone. This phenomenon is reflected in a sharp decrease in the number of children between the ages of 0 and 14, while the population of elderly citizens continues to grow at an accelerating pace.
The Growth of an Aging Population
One of the most notable demographic changes has been the increase in the elderly population. The percentage of people aged 60 and above has grown substantially, from 11.7% in 2014 to 16.8% in 2024. This rise in the elderly population is partly due to Tunisia’s increasing life expectancy, which now stands at 73.9 years, thanks to advancements in healthcare and medical services.
However, this aging trend is not limited to just an increase in life expectancy. The shrinking number of births and the reduction in the youth population have caused a structural shift in Tunisia’s demographic pyramid, where the base, representing children and young adults, is shrinking, while the top, representing senior citizens, continues to expand.
Implications of a Declining Population
The slowing population growth, with a growth rate of only 0.87% in 2024, is far below the minimum threshold needed to ensure generational renewal. Demographers warn that this could result in an accelerated aging of the population, with fewer young people available to support an expanding elderly population. This imbalance poses significant challenges for the workforce, pension systems, healthcare, and other critical social services.
In light of these developments, experts argue that urgent policy interventions are necessary to address the demographic crisis. Without adequate measures to support families, promote higher birth rates, and ensure that the aging population is adequately cared for, Tunisia could face economic stagnation and a shrinking labor force in the near future.
